Incometrader Commentary
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Incometrader Commentary

Friday's Market Close June 5th 2009

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for June 5th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

We end the week on a flat note but overall the gains outweighed the losses for the 13th week in a 15 week period. So what do we do from here? Will the gains just keep on coming? Until they do stop I’ll trade slightly more neutral since we are still so overbought.

To watch a video of Friday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click here. The DOW closed up 12 points at 8,763 while the NASDAQ closed flat to finish the day at 1,849.

Energy: Energy prices turned flat after the employment report. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading down $0.41 at $68.41 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.


The fat cats are coming after us from all sides…

Economic News: Stocks wavered after the release of a May jobs report revealed an unexpectedly soft drop in payrolls, but also a disappointing rise in the unemployment rate.

The economy lost 345,000 jobs last month, far fewer than the 520,000 economists had been expecting. The job loss was roughly half the average monthly decline for the last six months, the Labor Department said. The jarring change could suggest the labor market has reached a bottom.

The bad news: the unemployment rate, which ballooned to 9.4% in May, up from 8.9% in April and a bit above economists’ estimates.

Technology: So is Sandisk giving us a picture of a potential pullback before moving hiring again or would selling a July $15.00 put for $1.08 (naked put) give us an excellent cost basis on the stock to use for covered calls if we were assigned the stock?



Good and or bad stocks to watch:
RIMM, POT, AMZN, CTSH

Monday June 8

Tuesday June 9

Wednesday June 10

Thursday June 11

Friday June 12

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

 MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Beige Book
2:00 PM ET

Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

 

 

Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

RBC CASH Index
9:00 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Import & Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

Cheers,
Mike Coval






Tuesday's Market Close for May 12th

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Tuesday’s Close for May 12th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

Monday started with a new pretend selloff and then… nothing. It seems like every time the market gets up enough nerve to take a plunge, it quickly losses its nerve and returns to the previous highs. How long will this last? I keep saying that we are short term overbought and ready for a pullback. Until that happens I would suggest that any bullish trades are done in a conservative manner.

To watch a video of Tuesday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click here. The DOW closed up 50 points at 8,469 while the NASDAQ closed lower by 15 to finish the day at 1,716.

Energy: Not a lot going on over in the slippery pits. Oil prices were fairly flat. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading up $0.31 at $58.81 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.



If we can’t get the markets to go down, then we’ll look for something else to fall.

Economic News: Home prices fell in 134 out of 152 metropolitan areas during the first quarter, according to the latest data released by the National Association of Realtors. Recent monthly data had begun to suggest a bottoming out of the market, but the lower-resolution data failed to suggest an improvement.

Financials: Shares of Citigroup, C fell $0.20 on Tuesday. The stock remains the most heavily shorted on the NYSE, according to data from the exchange. But after sliding to just about $1 in early March, the stock has rallied nearly 300% to trade near $4, frustrating the positions of short sellers.

The financial sector continued to rally through April and early May, and through last week, when the government released the details of its so-called "stress tests" of the banks. Finance ETF, XLF also pulled back a bit.

Technology: Advanced Micro Devices, AMD gained $0.13 as it continues to gain strength. Market research firm IDC issued a report saying that shipments of PC processor chips slid by 13% during the first quarter compared to a year ago, but AMD was able to pick up some market share. So how about selling the June $4.00 puts for a bullish trade?



Services:
InterContinental Hotels shares, IHG rose 5%.The hotel operator said a firm hand on costs helped the firm beat wall Street's expectations even as its profit dropped 56%. Competitors WYN, HOT and MAR all closed down.



Gannett,
GCI, the media giant fell $0.42 on increased selling. The industry group remains sluggish as more and more tech savvy consumers look for new alternatives to traditional advertising.

Good and or bad stocks to watch: WAG, CONN, TWGP, FDS, PFS

Monday May 11

Tuesday May 12

Wednesday May 13

Thursday May 14

Friday May 15

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

 

 MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

Homework: None Today

Cheers,
Mike

Friday's Close for May 8th

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for May 8th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

And it still keeps trending higher. We are however, starting to see a chink in the armor, the tech stocks and more specifically the semi conductor stocks have been heading lower despites the Big Board’s advances. Could this signal a potential top? I think so especially since it comes when the markets are near their Jan highs.

To watch a video of Friday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click here. The DOW closed up 165 points at 8,575 while the NASDAQ closed higher by 23 to finish the day at 1,739.

Energy: Oil prices were up for a second day reaching short term highs. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading up $1.82 at $58.53 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.



A little hard work and practice and you can accomplish just about anything.

So why the rally today? A surprising jobs report brought the bulls back out, helping close the eighth week out of the last nine in positive territory.The latest jobs report hinted that the labor market may have found a bottom and the government's stress tests of financial firms gave traders some insight into the state of the banking system.

Economic News: Traders cheered the April jobs report, which showed non-farm payrolls fell last month by 539,000, well below the 699,000 jobs lost in March and far fewer than economists had been expecting. The data suggest the labor market could be stabilizing.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy should begin to grow again before the end of the year but warned that labor market would continue to get worse before it got better.

Technology: Activision Blizzard, ATVI, shares rose 7.4%. The video-game publisher beat Wall Street's earnings targets for the first quarter on strong sales of its video-game franchises. For the quarter ended March 31, the company reported net income of $189 million, or 14 cents a share. Revenue came in at $981 million. The stock broke up above its $11.10 resistance on strong volume with the MACD’s and Stochastics turning higher. There has to be a bullish trade in this one somewhere?



Financials:
In finance, the Federal Reserve suggested ten of the nation's top 19 financial institutions must raise their capital levels by a cumulative sum of $74.6 billion to adequately prepare themselves for another downward swing. The Fed also warned all 19 banks' losses could total $599 billion by the end of the year. Traders appeared to welcome the results, which ended at least some speculation over the fate and steadfastness of those firms.

American Express, AXP, charged up some profits with a $2.43 gain. The company is seeking permission to repay the government $3.4 billion in bailout funds that was handed over as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The decision comes after the Federal Reserve said the firm has "no capital need."

AIG moved back up above $2.00 per share as the company recorded its sixth straight quarter in the red, however, in a sign that conditions may be improving, the insurer's loss narrowed to $4.4 billion, 44% below that of the year-ago period.

Energy: This sector was hearting up with plenty of investor buying. AES rose 18%. The electricity generator and distributor's earnings dropped to $218 million, or 33 cents a share, down from $233 million, or 34 cents, earned in first three months of 2008. The consensus of three analysts surveyed by FactSet Research had been for AES to earn 26 cents a share. The energy sector ETF, XLE moved up on the news.



Consumer Cyclicals:
No good news for the autos. Toyota, TM fell $1.77, from its 7 month high. The company, recently anointed the world's largest automaker, predicted an annual loss of $8.6 billion, as a sharp decline in sales weighed on guidance. The firm also said it expects global sales to drop 14% during the current fiscal year. MACD’s and Stochastics are rolling down as well.

Good and or bad stocks to watch: TTES, EBAY, BEAV, VAR, CAL, FNF

Monday May 11

Tuesday May 12

Wednesday May 13

Thursday May 14

Friday May 15

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

 

 MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

Homework: None Today

Cheers,
Mike

Tuesday's Close for May 5th

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Tuesday’s Close for May 5th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

So after all these gains when will the pullback or profit taking occur? We are undoubtedly in an uptrend so taking any new bearish trades may not be the correct trade but taking any bullish trades at these overbought levels is just as risky.

To watch a video of Tuesday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click here. The DOW closed down 16 points at 8,410 while the NASDAQ closed lower by 9 to finish the day at 1,754.

Energy: Oil prices were only slightly lower. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading down $0.66 at $53.81 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.

A little hard work and practice and you can accomplish just about anything.

The good news is that the selling did not follow Yesterdays gains, the bad news, we did not follow through with any buying.

Economic News: On Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress that job losses would probably escalate. But in his most optimistic view of the economy he said it could start growing again by the end of 2009. 

"Recent data suggest that the pace of contraction may be slowing," he said in prepared testimony, "and they include some tentative signs that final demand, especially demand by households, may be stabilizing."

Bernanke predicted the economy should shift back to expansion by the end of the year.

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management's index for the services sector suggested the industry was still contracting but by less than economists had expected.

Transportation: Finally some good news for the airline stocks. AMR shares rose 10%. April traffic at its American Airlines unit fell 4.7% to 10.28 billion revenue passenger miles from 10.79 billion in the year-ago period. Capacity slid 6.1% to 12.64 billion available seat miles, while load factor, or the percentage of available seats filled with passengers, edged up to 81.3% last month from 80.2% in April 2008.



Financials:
In finance, the government's stress tests revealed that about 10 out of the 19 banks examined should boost their capital reserves to be adequately prepared for another downturn. The Financial Sector SPDR XLF closed down $0.17 on the news.

UBS fell $0.32 after posting a $1.75 billion first-quarter loss, in line with its guidance from last month. UBS also said it expected the weakened economy to force the firm to expand its credit provisions.

Technology: Apple, AAPL up $0.64 and Google, GOOG, up $1.01 are the subject of federal investigation regarding whether the composition of their boards constitutes an antitrust violation. Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt and former Genentech CEO Arthur Levinson each sit on both boards, which has become increasingly of concern to the FTC as the firms have become larger rivals in the telecom and operating systems markets.

Healthcare: The heart started to beat over at Health Net, HNT. The share price gained 12%. The managed health-care company said it swung to a first-quarter profit as tighter cost controls more than made up for an overall decline in total health-plan enrollment.



Good and or bad stocks to watch:
EBAY, JOSB, CTRN, HXL, APOG

Monday May 4

Tuesday May 5

Wednesday May 6

Thursday May 7

Friday May 8

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET


Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET

 

 MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET

ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Chain Store Sales 

Monster Employment Index 

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET

RBC CASH Index
9:00 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
9:30 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

Homework: None Today

Cheers,
Mike

Friday's Commentary and Trend Reversal Gaps - part 2

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for Mar 13th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

Not the strongest day on Friday but it was an excellent way to end the week. From what has been the norm, plenty of selling, we had none of that after this week’s earlier gains. In fact the lack of selling into the weekend is to be considered extremely bullish. Is it time for some bullish positions? I think we could easily see a few more higher days in the near future but by no means does that mean the selling is complete. In other words, I’m looking for some more short term buying followed by the return of the downturn.

To watch a video of Friday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click here. The DOW closed up 54 points at 7,224 while the NASDAQ closed higher by 5 to finish the day at 1,432.

Energy: Oil prices were back and forth after Thursday’s nice rally. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading down $1.21 at $45.84 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.

Sometimes it seems you just can’t win…

Over the last four days, traders returned to financials and sent the Dow back over a critical benchmark. Next week will bring a slew of new data on housing and manufacturing -- two sectors with a recent knack for sending the markets packing.

Economic News: The January reading of the trade balance showed the trade gap narrowed for the sixth straight month. Separately, consumer confidence crept up this month.

Healthcare: Merck & Co, MRK rose 13%. Analysts at Bernstein raised their rating of the blue-chip drug company's stock to outperform, citing valuation. With the MACD’s and Stochastics just now turning higher and a positive news story, I’d have to think an aggressive trader might be able to profit from an April $25.00 call. If the stock pulls back below $24.50, the call should be rolled into a bear cal spread. Though.



Financials:
Citigroup, C, gained $0.11 after announcing it does not plan on asking for additional capital from the government. The firm "is actually one of the better capitalized banks in the world," Chairman Parsons said.

Even the mighty stumble every once in a while. Berkshire Hathaway, BRK.A dropped $2,150.00 after a rating cut by Fitch Ratings. The firm's triple-A rating was downgraded to double-A.

Consumer Non Cyclicals: Still blasting its way higher, Smith & Wesson, SWHC, added $0.52 on strong volume with a third-quarter profit on improved firearm sales, the firm said. Smith & Wesson earned $2.4 million, of 5 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier net loss of $1.8 million, or 4 cents a share. Any pullback to the $3.50 level should provide an excellent entry point.



Sara Lee shares,
SLE moved up $0.41 on news the company may sell its European household and personal-care business, which could carry a price tag of more than $2 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Good and or bad stocks to watch: BEAT, VPRT, EW, PHI, NSM

Monday Mar 16

Tuesday Mar 17

Wednesday Mar 18

Thursday Mar 19

Friday Mar 20

Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

Housing Market Index
1:00 PM ET

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET

Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

 

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Current Account
8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET

 

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

 

Quadruple Witching
 

Homework Training: Feel free to leave any stocks you would like to have looked at in the comments section (below) and I’ll try and choose one of the stocks and add it to my analysis for all to read. Please tell your investing friends about this blog as well. It is here for you and the more comments I can get from you the better it will be.

Homework: Trend Reversal Gaps, part 2, click here.

Cheers,
Mike

Tuesday Mar 3rd and Trend Reversal Gaps - part 1

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for Mar 10th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

I don’t think it was a surprise to most investors that we had a good day today as the buying actually started Friday during the last 30 minutes. Any buying into a Friday weekend it a bullish scenario. Over the past three weeks we showed lower closes 93% of the time. At some point an oversold bounce was imminent. I would not get too excited though as this could easily be just a short bounce before we head lower once more.

To watch a video of Tuesday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click Here. The DOW closed up 119 points at 7,063 while the NASDAQ closed higher by 14 to finish the day at 1,378.

Energy: In the energy markets, oil prices advanced slightly after the U.S. government lowered its demand forecast. Late in the day, the price of crude futures was trading up $1.35 at $44.30 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.

Financials: The good news started with the Financials and most of that came early on from Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit who said he believes that the market is undervaluing his bank Pandit said the firm was profitable through February and is performing better now than it has at this point in any other quarter in the last year.

Moody's, MCO, closed up $1.91 on news it will be revealing underperforming companies in a new monthly list called the Bottom Rung, which will identify firms closest to defaulting on their debts. The inaugural list includes 283 companies, including Advanced Micro Devices, AMD and Eastman Kodak EK.



Economic News:
Still, broader economic reports remained troubling. In labor, the forecast for hiring is at its gloomiest point since the 1982 recession, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Over the 33 countries surveyed by the employment agency, 23 reported their weakest hiring plans since Manpower began data tracking.

Overseas, the global economy may have received its weakest outlook in recent history when International Monetary Fung Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn predicted a global economic contraction. "The IMF expects global growth to slow below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," he told African political and financial leaders in Dar Es Salaam.

Consumer Non Cyclicals: Kroger, KR had a trend reversal gap to close up $1.98 after a jump in fourth-quarter profit, topping Wall Street estimates. The grocer earned $349.2 million, or 53 cents a share, up from $322.9 million, or 48 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The increase came largely from a sales boost of Kroger-branded items.

Technology: Trying to buy their way to fame, Nvidia, NVDA, plans to begin a new search for young graphics hardware firms worthy of their investment. Nvidia will commit between $500,000 and $5 million to such firms in exchange for a minority stake. The program is designed to encourage wider use of Nvidea's own graphics processing chips. The stock closed up $0.75 on increased volume while continuing to make higher lows.



Communications:
AT&T T gained $1.24 on news it will not only have a profit but will have enough to invest $17 billion to $18 billion in 2009.

Transportation: In a surprise announcement, Boeing, BA, advanced $2.01 on strong volume after it said its commercial-aircraft customers have access to sufficient credit so that all deliveries can take place as scheduled this year and into early 2010. Also, the 787 Dreamliner remains on schedule with its maiden flight to occur in the second quarter.

Good and or bad stocks to watch: SGP, NETL, NFLX, NCMI, CAJ, RSTI,

Tuesday Mar 10

Wednesday Mar 11

Thursday Mar 12

Friday Mar 13

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Ben Bernanke Speaks
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

 

Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

 

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET

 

Homework Training: Feel free to leave any stocks you would like to have looked at in the comments section (below) and I’ll try and choose one of the stocks and add it to my analysis for all to read. Please tell your investing friends about this blog as well. It is here for you and the more comments I can get from you the better it will be.

Homework: Trend Reversal Gaps, part 1, click here.

Cheers,
Mike

Tuesday Mar 3rd

Tuesday March 3rd
I'm looking for a short term bounce soon. We have been down for too many straight days and we are due for some relief buying. It might not last too long so don't blink.

In the meantime someone sent me a great explination of the credit crisis the country is facing, to watch the video, please click here.

Friday's Market Commentary

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for Feb 20th, 2009
Written by: Mike Coval

See Mike Coval and Stacy Acevedo at the NY Traders Expo this week. Click here for details

It started off with a negative tone but some late day buying saved us from some heavy selling. I have to admit I was hoping for a bullish week but every good bit of news was met with even more liquidating. So where will next week go? At the moment we are still a bit bearish.

To watch a video of Friday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click Here. The DOW closed down 100 points at 7,365 while the NASDAQ closed lower by 1 to finish the day at 1,441.

Energy: Crude prices originally fell on uncertainty over demand before settling flat. Late in the day, the price of crude futures were trading down $0.54 at $38.94 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.



This will be a short commentary this week since I’m on my way out of town.

Financials: So why all the selling? Some of it came from the financial sector over fears from looming credit card defaults and the potential for nationalization. Senator Chris Dodd said nationalization was a possibility for the sector. Those comments led to a dramatic selling period before a White House spokesperson stepped in to dismiss that idea. Citigroup, C fell 22.31% and JPMorgan Chase fell $0.70.

UBS fell 8.22% Friday after shareholders became nervous after a tax evasion investigation, according to Reuters. The U.S. has charged Swiss banks with helping rich Americans dodge taxes. UBS settled a suit earlier in the week. But investors sold off its shares and other banks there as it appears the country's notorious banking privacy rules may be weakened.


Economic News:
Inflation appears to be on the rise. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% in January -- twice the gain economists had been expecting. The reading was consistent with Thursday's reading of the Producer Price Index, which came in unexpectedly higher.

Overseas, European investors drove stocks to their lowest levels in six years over fresh concerns about the continent's ailing financial sector. Japanese stocks hit a 25-year low after investors there also fretted banks could experience more trouble.

In international news, the housing bust seems to be accelerating in the United Kingdom. Data from the Times of London shows 219,000 homeowners were three or more months behind on their mortgage payments, up from 127,500 at the end of 2007. Lenders also repossessed 40,000 homes last year. Not a single European blue chip traded in positive territory.

Consumer Non Cyclicals: General Motors, GM dropped 11.50% subsidiary Saab filed for bankruptcy protection Friday and may be spun off from its parent company, according to the Associated Press. The move came after the Swedish government declined to inject money into the car maker. GM has asked Canada, Britain and Germany for similar help.

Good and or bad stocks to watch: PCLN, BIDU, MYL TOL, UTR, PNY



Homework Training:
Feel free to leave any stocks you would like to have looked at in the comments section (below) and I’ll try and choose one of the stocks and add it to my analysis for all to read. Please tell your investing friends about this blog as well. It is here for you and the more comments I can get from you the better it will be.

Homework: None Today

Cheers,
Mike

Tuesday's Commentary and Technicals - part 2

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Tuesday’s Close for Feb 17th, 2008
Written by: Mike Coval

Under 800 on the S&P 500, a pretty good support and now it looks like we are ready to break down through the 7,500 Dow support. If this happens we will see some extremely heavy selling. Personally I would like to see us bounce from here, but the markets are still getting weaker.

To watch a video of Tuesday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click Here. The DOW closed down 297 points at 7,552 while the NASDAQ closed lower by 63 to finish the day at 1,470.

Energy: It was not a pretty site as the price of oil once again slipped right through any hopeful support areas. Late in the day, the price of crude futures were trading down $2.59 at $34.93 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.



Financials:
Banks were at the front of the selling, Bank of America, BAC down12%, Citigroup, C, down 12% and JPMorgan Chase, JPM also down 12% each carried heavy losses as uncertainty over the health of the financial sector weighed on Wall Street.

Consumer Non Cyclicals: Can you believe it? Wal-Mart, WMT closed up $1.71 on increasing buying volume after topping fourth-quarter estimates. The nation's top retailer earned $3.79 billion, or 96 cents a share, down from $4.096 billion, or $1.02 share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, the firm earned $1.03 a share, four cents above Street estimates. A nice double bottom here for WMT.

General Motors, GM, fell 12.80% to close at a new low. The company will receive its second installment of federal bailout money -- an additional $4 billion -- regardless of whether the automaker solidifies the Tuesday deadline to submit its restructuring plan. GM, which already has received $9.4 billion in government aid, is reportedly making headway with its debtors and the United Auto Workers.

Economic News: The manufacturing sector is still looking negative after the Empire State Manufacturing index hit a record low.

White House officials are not as pumped up about the watered down stimulus plan. "There will be signs of activity very quickly," White House senior advisor David Axelrod said on "Fox News Sunday." "But it's going to take time for that to show up in the statistics. The president has said it's likely to get worse before it gets better."

Services: Trump Entertainment Resorts, TRMP closed at $0.18, down $0.05 and has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The firm had accumulated debts of more than $1.7 billion as of the end of last year, as casino revenues were curbed by the recession.

Healthcare: Medtronic, MDT, shares added 5.3%, after gaining as much as 8%. Third-quarter earnings were $723 million, or 65 cents a share, compared with $77 million, or 7 cents, in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose 3% to $3.49 billion. On an adjusted basis, Medtronic earned 71 cents versus 63 cents a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet Research expected the medical technology company to earn 70 cents a share in profit and $3.51 billion in sales.

Technology: Nokia Corp., NOK, lost 7.7%. The world's largest maker of mobile phones, on Monday unveiled a series of high-end phones aimed at the business user and launched its own media and software store. The selloff on the news indicates the markets did not like it and will likely see the stock lower. How about a March put?



Good and or bad stocks to watch:
CPLA, DGIT, AVAV ALL, HD, HR, RAIL



Homework Training:
Feel free to leave any stocks you would like to have looked at in the comments section (below) and I’ll try and choose one of the stocks and add it to my analysis for all to read. Please tell your investing friends about this blog as well. It is here for you and the more comments I can get from you the better it will be.

Homework: What is the most important technical indicator to use? To find out in our part 2 homework, go to www.incometrader.com/homework.htm

Cheers,
Mike

Friday's Market Commentary & The Ultimate Indicator

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights
Friday’s Close for Feb 13th, 2008
Written by: Mike Coval

What a lack luster day. If you were hoping for some action then hopefully you were able to get it elsewhere. The markets opened flat traded flat and closed flat as everyone waited for some new economic stimulus news that was noticeably absent.

To watch a video of Friday’s market action, along with my thoughts, Click Here. The DOW closed down 82 points at 7,850 while the NASDAQ closed lower by 7 to finish the day at 1,534.

Energy: Crude prices rebounded after a tough week. Late in the day, the price of crude futures were trading up $3.81 at $37.79 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO.

Economic News: The February reading of the Consumer Sentiment Index came in below economists' expectations. The disappointing reading appeared to confirm the theory that the surprising retail report released earlier this week was more of a fluke than a sign of a return to spending.



On Capitol Hill, late Friday lawmakers prepared to cast their votes for the $789 billion economic stimulus package, a bill forged by the White House and House and Senate leaders for both parties.

Consumer Non Cyclicals: Pepsi, PEP gained $0.57 to bounce up off its $50.00 support on an increase of volume. The company saw its fourth quarter net fall but met estimates as much of the downward pressure came from one-time charges.

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch, ANF, gapped open to close up $2.08. The stock beat the Street for earnings and technically is showing a new upward channel with resistance near $28.00.



Technology:
Microsoft, MSFT plans to open its own chain of retail stores to sell computers loaded with the firm's software. Microsoft hired David Porter, the head of worldwide product distribution at DreamWorks Animation SKG and a former Wal-Mart executive, to lead the new retail division.

Toyota, TM, dropped $2.01as it too admits the U.S. economy is hurting their sales. TM announced sweeping cost-cutting measures at its North American facilities that will scale back vehicle production. The firm plans to offer buyouts to its North American employees, suspend executive bonuses, cut wages and scale back shifts. Toyota also announced a hiring freeze, halted overtime and suspended capital spending.

Good and or bad stocks to watch:
CPLA, GXDX, MPWR, AVAV, KBW, CMA, VNO, WHR



Homework Training:
Feel free to leave any stocks you would like to have looked at in the comments section (below) and I’ll try and choose one of the stocks and add it to my analysis for all to read. Please tell your investing friends about this blog as well. It is here for you and the more comments I can get from you the better it will be.

Homework: What is the most important technical indicator to use? To find out, go to www.incometrader.com/homework.htm

Cheers,
Mike